To Boost or not to Boost, that is the question dear Jason?

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Hi all just thought i would share my strangely obsessive findings and that although i have been saying it for ages with my head math( the little gerbils who live in my head that tell me what to do) its nice to see that i was right once the stats arrive.

Disclaimer: these stats may not be 100% accurate and should not be used in any unfit manner such as gambling your house,car,family or stamp collection based on my findings.

To Hit….

you have 2 choices when rolling to hit with jacks or casters do you use the focus to hit or to buy an extra attack, well to show you what to do check these figures out.

6’s to hit on 2 dice is 72% on 3 is 95%, so you effectivly get 1.42 hits with 2 attacks against 0.95 attacks boosting and will have more damage potential due to rolling for damage twice.

7’s to hit on 2 dice is 58% on 3 is 90% so again 1.16 hits and potentially 2 damage rolls against 0.90 hits and 1 roll

8’s to hit on 2 dice is 41% on 3 is 83% so 0.82 hits against 0.83 hits but i still think rolling twice is better due to the high damage potential(ie you could hit twice but on 3 dice will only ever hit once)

9’s to hit on 2 dice 27% on 3 74% so from this point on 9+ to hit its better to boost as two attacks will hit less often than 1 boosted.

Criticals…

now everyone knows rolling more dice increases your chance of getting a critical (you do know that right?), but i think that people are often blinded by sparkly rule sydrome and forget themselves in certain situations(ie me :)). no for some abilities that do extra damage or pull down a casters pants in front of their friends they are to specific so will allways be used if the situation calls for it, my main focus is on sustained attack and knockdown, now knock down does allow others to auto hit in melee but we’ll leave that out for now.

lets take for example a caster(kaya) or jack with critical sustained attack/KD purely for those extra attacks to auto hit.

now taking into account that rolling a double on 3 dice is 44%(i think) lets be really nice for this example and say that you allways get it on that first attack.

so jack with 3 focus in each example will buy straight attacks, or boost and buy extras.

against 5’s to hit boosted for crit, 98% first hits, and buys 2 extra attacks for 3,

unboosted 4 attacks(normal +3 focus) get 3.32 hits(4 x 83%) and potentially 4 damage rolls.

against 6’s to hit boosted for crit 95% first hits and 2 extra attacks,

unboosted 2.88 hits but again 4 rolls mean better damage potential

against 7’s to hit 90% first hits and 2 extra attacks.

unboosted 2.32 hits

so really without going into the really complicated world of super stats you can see even being nice and saying that it will allways crit, chances are just rolling the extra attack will give you better results.

Damage rolls

now this is really were i got thinking about all this boosting malarky.

Now boosting a damage roll effectivly adds 3.5 damage to the total damage. using that as a guide if you have a arm-pow modifier of -3 or better then on average rolls on 2D6 you will get average of 4 damage but also critically have more damage potential.

example:

-3 to roll, a boosted attack will do zero(4% chance)-15 damage, 2 attacks do zero-9 each so combined zero(16% chance) – 18.

so you have a great damage but more chance of doin nothing. now this changes drastically in favour of the 2 attacks if the modifier is better and in favour of boosting if worse(-3 is kind of the middle), you can use this in 2 ways, if you really just need to do a small amount of damage(ie solos) then boost as less chance of doing nothing if you need the damage then attacks away.

also you need to consider the cahnce to hit the apponent as missing with those extra attacks will really hurt on the damage front.

well thats me about done, this can be looked into much further but i think this is simple enough for most to gain somethign from it, feel free to comment and correct if im wrong in places. hopefully something is gain by some of you as my fingers are starting to bleed from all this typing.

Just remember next time you pick up those dice have a think before you roll and answer that age old question To Boost or not to Boost

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7 Responses to “To Boost or not to Boost, that is the question dear Jason?”

  1. jasefox Says:

    Wtf.

    I’ll be honest, for me, it’s all about the feeling. Sometimes I boost when I only need 4’s to hit. 

    Great work though Chris, you fried my mind!

  2. Peter Buxton Says:

    At least I am not the only one who has math hamsters in my head….

    I like your findings Chris, and to be honest I have only had a quick glance but your figures seem to be correct (and if they are not then I am sure someone will be along soon to correct them!)

    For me it’s all about the system. If it’s Hordes I will always boost, Warmachine, I will be more careful and normally go for the extra attack.

    There is also that wonderful feeling that a boost gives you when you really really really want to hit something, you boost “Too make sure” and get 3 6s!

    And of course the dreaded “anything but a double 1!”

  3. Andy Says:

    The two dice vs one dice one isn’t quite telling the whole story.

    Taking the 8’s as an example you have it down as 0.82 vs 0.83.

    With a bit more depth:

    One boosted roll: 83% chance of one hit.

    Two un-boosted rolls: 41% + (59×41% = 24.1% ) = 65.1% of scoring at least one hit. The probability of scoring two hits with two un-boosted rolls:
    41% x 41% = 16.8%

    To perhaps express that in an easier to read way:

    One boosted:
    5/6 score one hit.
    5 hits total, 17% chance of nothing.

    Two un-boosted:
    2/6 rounds 0 hits. (35% miss)
    3/6 rounds 1 hit.
    1/6 rounds 2 hits.
    5 hits total, 35% chance of nothing, 16.8% chance of two hits in a given round.

    So it’s no increase in average damage in the two attacks, but a small chance of piling up more in a given turn, but with it a doubled chance of getting absolutely nothing. I personally would boost unless I was absolutely sure I’d lose if I didn’t hit twice, if I had the option.

    It takes on another bit of importance of it is a charge attack or otherwise have something else loaded up behind it, examples being spells that have cost more than 1 to cast, chain attacks or things that get some sort of “on the next attack..” bonus as then you lose more than one attacks worth if you miss.

    Generally I only regard 6+ as reliable, 7 as chancy (Boost if I have something else riding on it, or only need one hit, otherwise buy another attack) and 8’s as boost whenever possible.

    • jasefox Says:

      Agh! My head exploded!

      • Andy Says:

        After I was done I remembered the GW/Chessex dice being weighted towards the 1 as well, I think trying to work out the implications of that little doozy would make my head explode, but suffice it to say the odds are worse than the pure maths would suggest.

    • Procrastinator Says:

      andy now im not awake enough to back this up but the calculation you have made are when the rolls are dependant on each other. as they are completely interdependant the odds are higher than your calculations suggest. the calculation you stated for 1 dice hit(2 hits is correct i think) on 2 unboosted rolls is 82% . to put it in simple terms if you hit 41 out of100 dice rolls not boosting, then buying and extra attack makes it 200 dices rolls and 82 hits as they arent linked.

      • Andy Says:

        I was calculating the probability of actually getting two hits, which was the stated goal of going for two attacks right ?

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